Summary

Case studies were presented for whitebark pine and western white pine using plant-climate modeling of current and future climate predictions and genetic studies. These studies indicate dramatic differences in these two species’ responses to climate change from the past and the future. These responses are largely dependent on the breadth of the ecological niches and life-history characteristics of each species. For whitebark pine, specialization for subalpine habitat is predicted to severely limit its distribution under future climate scenarios. Alternatively, coevolved relationships with Clark’s nutcracker have enabled this species to colonize new habitat following Holocene warming. This characteristic may also aid its migration northward in the future, but successful migration to newly established suitable climate space is contingent upon the rate of climate change and the severity of impact from white pine blister rust and insect attack. Because western white pine has broader ecological range, it may be better suited to buffer effects of climate change. This ecological range is reflected in its predicted resilience under the future climate scenario. The creation of the plant-climate models and determining the impact from future climate scenarios for a particular species are dependent upon basic genetic research, both ecological and population genetics. Current research is focused on integration of genetic and climate data for these species. This approach represents a synthesis of multidisciplinary research to provide useful guidelines for forest management plans for genetic conservation and restoration that consider future climate change projections.